Spooky Tales of No Chocolate in Trick-or-Treat Baskets? Look to Cocoa Shortage… Not Sugar

By Dr. Rob Johansson, Director of Economics and Policy Analysis

The volatility of the cocoa market has led to some truly spooky headlines over the past year, including cautionary tales of candy shortages. It’s inevitable that these headlines will rise from the dead again this Halloween and opponents of U.S. sugar policy may choose to take this opportunity to take a stab at sugar producers.

But if your Halloween basket is light on chocolate this year, it’s cocoa that’s the culprit – not sugar.

Chocolate, a key ingredient found in many Halloween favorites, is made from cocoa beans.  And nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa beans come from just two countries: Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have had several years of terrible harvests, leading to a global deficit of cocoa and prices 200% higher than just three years ago.

The prices for some other key candy ingredients, including dairy, oil, and sugar, by comparison have remained relatively unchanged over that same period.

Thankfully, U.S. sugar policy has provided Halloween candy manufacturers with stable sugar prices and a reliable domestic source for an essential ingredient. Not to mention, the cost of the sugar in your favorite Halloween treat is likely just a penny or two, and research from the University of Tennessee has shown that there is little-to-no correlation between changes in sugar prices and the prices that grocery shoppers ultimately pay for sweet treats.

Frighteningly, very little of the cost of candy goes back to sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers.

Our farmers and factory workers take immense risks to plant, raise, harvest, store, and process the crops that sweeten our celebrations. Let’s make sure we don’t falsely point to them as the boogeyman this Halloween season.