Dr. Johansson: Sugar Forecasts and the Farm Safety Net
Column authored by Dr. Robert Johansson, Associate Director of Economics and Policy Analysis at the American Sugar Alliance.
The vernal equinox, aka spring equinox, came and went Sunday, March 20, marking the end of winter and the beginning of spring.
As all good aggies know, that means the economists at the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri have just published their new 10-year baseline for agricultural production and programs.
That baseline is adjusted by University of Missouri economists to reflect more recent 2022 prices and economic conditions compared to the earlier U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) baseline published in part in November and in full in February. Most of the data and assumptions used for these projections came from the January time frame, however. That means that a lot of the impacts one might expect from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and disruptions with Black Sea deliveries will not be reflected in this baseline.
For example, while fertilizer prices are assumed higher for 2022/23 in this baseline compared to the 2021/22 crop year, the extreme rise in fertilizer prices since the conflict began and the likelihood that Russia and Belarus will have continuing difficulties with exporting goods are not captured in this report. As another example, this baseline does not include the projected increases in interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee in March.
From a sugar perspective, the equinox also marks the tail end of the sugarcane harvest (with some acres left to harvest yet in Florida and Texas) and the beginning of sugarbeet planting.
Taking stock:
- we expect record domestic sugar production at 9.4 million tons in 2021/22, despite challenges ranging from historic drought in the Northern Great Plains to hurricanes battering the Gulf Coast shores and a freeze in Florida this January; and
- the projections for next year are for a continued increase in production to more than 9.7 million tons in 2022/23.
With record production for American sugar farmers this year and next, there will be more than an adequate supply of sugar to fulfill our nation’s needs. Projected imports for this year and next are expected to continue to decline from the recent high of 4.2 million tons in 2019/20.
Looking forward, FAPRI expects overall sugar demand to grow by nearly 1 million tons over the next 10 years, as the number of people in America grows over time. Per capita consumption of sugar has been relatively flat over the recent 10-year period, while consumption of high fructose corn syrup has been falling.
Sugar demand growth is met with expected growth in domestic production, but U.S. sugar policy also gives 41 countries, most of them developing nations, preferential access to our market to ensure that consumers always stay stocked with this essential ingredient. In fact, the U.S. is the third largest sugar importer in the world. Overall stocks-to-use remain near 14.5%, indicating ample stocks of sugar are projected to be available on average over the projection period.
While FAPRI does not explicitly discuss government program costs for sugar, USDA in their 10-year baseline continues to project a sugar program cost of $0 over the next 10 years. And in the FAPRI baseline with rising production in the U.S., sugar prices for raw cane sugar and refined beet sugar are expected on average to remain above the loan rates.
However, with any good economic forecast there are both positives and negatives. An area worth keeping an eye on is rising costs of production. Both FAPRI and USDA expect agricultural costs of production to continue to increase over the next 10 years. FAPRI has input costs rising by 24% and USDA has input costs rising by 8% over the baseline period, which again does not include any developments from February or March. FAPRI projects the farm debt-to-asset ratio creeping up to 15.7% by 2031 (which would be the highest since 1989 if realized), reflecting rising costs of production and stagnant prices for outputs.
In the face of such anticipated challenges, it is critical that Congress continue to back a strong farm safety net including a no-cost sugar policy in order to allow continued investments in farm productivity and refining efficiencies.



































American BioCarbon saw an opportunity to create a dense, transportable energy source that doesn’t have to be used onsite but can be shipped to anyone in the world. They process the bagasse into compressed, portable pellets.
In addition to renewable fuel pellets, American BioCarbon also produces biochar and absorbent pellets. Biochar captures carbon from the sugarcane plant and is then returned to the field to improve water retention, decrease runoff, improve nutrient retention and soil carbon content, and increase crop resiliency. Biochar sequesters carbon in the soil that would have otherwise been released if the bagasse were left to decompose naturally.









“I just felt a great need to create something I can teach them and bring about that awareness of how important agriculture is to everyone,” Denny says.


M.A. Patout runs the oldest family-owned sugar mill in the United States. The company’s namesake, Mary Ann Patout, was one of the most remarkable women in Louisiana history. It’s still a family-oriented company, and Sandor credits the company’s positive culture with being a force for good in his community.















Sugar farmers have always been quick to share their blessings by supporting food donation efforts. However, the pandemic has created even greater food insecurity in many of our rural communities. In response, farmers and sugar companies have stepped up efforts to help, including Florida Crystals.
For decades, America’s sugar industry has been proud to be a sustainable economic driver in communities across the country, producing high-quality sugar while providing well-paying jobs. As America comes together to present a united front against the COVID-19 virus, the on-farm and factory jobs the sugar industry supports across America are more important than ever in keeping communities strong and a crucial food ingredient flowing to American families.
The iconic Domino Sugar refinery in Baltimore, Maryland, delivered sugar to Catholic Charities of Baltimore, which was distributed to four food pantries in the city and will be used at Our Daily Bread Employment Center to provide individuals with a daily hot meal.
When the farmers at U.S. Sugar saw that many of their neighbors in the community were facing food insecurity due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, they knew exactly what to do.
While still working in fields and factories to produce an essential food ingredient, sugar farmers and producers across America have also been quietly acting in a multitude of ways to support our communities during this unprecedented pandemic. These extraordinary gestures are an ordinary act for an industry that prides itself on providing a helping hand and investing in sustainable communities.
Sugar producers have donated nourishing produce to food pantries and sugar to distilleries to produce hand sanitizer. They’ve provided protective equipment to keep frontline health care providers safe. And they’ve purchased gift cards to help local restaurants stay open and employees fed.










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